Social Sentiment Cycles have been “spot-on” for EUR/USD

Cycles predicted biggest 30 day increase in EURUSD ahead of time

In a public article on March 22th, we issued the analysis on the EURUSD currency pair based on social sentiment cycles. The EURUSD was following a long lasting downtrend for over a year and the important question on March 22th was if the current price action is just a “pause” of the downtrend and the start of a larger upswing?

EURUSD - Situation 201th March

EURUSD – Situation 201th March

We used our cycles toolkit to get a clue out of this situation and used the sentiment data provided by PsychSignal to check if there are dominant cycles active.

The dominant cycles showed a clear picture – we expected a bounce as sentiment cycle started to turn positive. This was posted in several public blogs ahead of time. 

Now, 1,5 month later – we have the result in. A sharp increase of over +5% just after our analysis.

 

EURUSD - Cycles Prediction Outcome

EURUSD – Cycles Prediction Outcome

 

The EUR/USD currency started it biggest 30days uprun since 2013 just after our warning. The long-term chart shows that we have not seen such an upswing during the last 2,5 years.

EURUSD 30days change

EURUSD 30days change

 

You can re-read our original article here and the PsychSignal blog post here.

Download PDF Article

Dynamic Cycle Phasing

Please watch the following introduction of a new dynamic cycle based indicator. A dynamic cycles-within-cycles alignment toolset – extending the knowledge and usage of the Dynamic Cycle Explorer.

 

Download SlideDeck as .pdf

[…] You must have Membership Level to access & download study. Please configure your account.

Here is a study of the Cycle Phasing and Cycle Swing Indicator signals on a 16k volume ES EMini futures chart:

Cycle Phasing & Cycle Swing Indicator

Cycle Phasing & Cycle Swing Indicator

 

A follow up of the used introduction slide deck on the SPX – first time for over a year: we now have a peak above 150 treshold on 14 April 2015:

SPX CyclePhasing Juncture

SPX CyclePhasing Juncture

SPX / VIX Dynamic Cycles Snapshot

All In now (on the short side) [28th April]!

This juncture was posted first on March 29th here [updated 14th and 28th April]. Re-read the original dynamic cycle analysis. The current situation – one month later- shows us that this juncture is still valid while markets have moved sideways, some other started to turn down already.

“We often refer to stock market tops as a process because they occur over time. The reason is that the emotion underlying a peak is one of hope, which dissipates diffusely. Some stock indexes and sectors will top earlier than others, peeling away from the market’s uptrend.” Elliot Wave International

Please read attached cycle juncture. (29th March 2015)

 

DOWNLOAD LINK 

 

Update [April 14th] – Cycle Phasing score >150 now in confirmation:

SPX CyclePhasing Juncture

SPX CyclePhasing Juncture

 

Update [28th April] – dynamic cycles projectio still valid – here is the update:

SPX_ViXCycle_update

 

Cycle Swing Indicator Divergence Pattern:

INDU_Divs

 

Social Sentiment Cycles Situation [April 28th] (DataSource: PsychSignal):

sentiment_cycles

Download .pdf: SPX_SocialMediaSentiment_28042015

EURO – Dominant Social Media Sentiment Cycle

Dominant Cycle Update

Euro Social Media Sentiment Snapshot as of March 20th

Data as of 20th March 2015 / Data Source: PsychSignal

[ DOWNLOAD CHARTS AS .PDF ]

I. Sentiment Cycle (detected on social media sentiment from PsychSignal)

Euro Social Media Sentiment Cycle

Euro Social Media Sentiment Cycle

 

II. Sentiment Cycle tops/bottoms mapped to EUR/USD price chart

Social Media Sentiment mapped to EUR/USD price chart

Social Media Sentiment mapped to EUR/USD price chart

 
( Signal was published 20. March 2015 at a price of 1.081 )

added: UPDATE [June 12th]
RESULTS ARE IN – READ OR WATCH THE
REVIEW OF THIS LIVE FORECAST HERE:

Read PDF Aricle

Video step-by-step review of this forecast (30min.)

Bitcoin Realtime Datafeed

New experimental Bitcoin realtime datafeed

As new markets are emerging, it is interesting to get the new charts and currency rate conversions in realtime on a price chart. New exchanges to trade bitcoin against the currency pairs like EUR and USD offer new trading possibilities. Why not use our cycle tools to analyze the bitcoin exchange rate in realtime?

Here we go. The new added datafeed “Bitcoin” is available now with the next release. It makes use of the free availabel APIs from different bitcoin markets. We build up a datafeed which uses the markets where the most volume is trades. So we are mixing different APIs in one datafeed here.

Here are the usage infos:

There are only two pairs which can be charted:

  • Bitcoin vs. USD [Chart symbol: USD]
  • Bitcoin vs. EUR [Chart symbol: EUR]

The symbols can only be charted in the period of minutes with the following settings for minutes:

1 (default), 5, 15, 30, 60, 240, 1440, 10080, 21600

The current update frequency is set to 20 seconds. Be carefull with higher rates and the APIs might limit access to realtime data.

Please see the following video for short demonstration:

One more thing…

Wait, the announcement of Apple moving into the DOW and the iWatch is not all. There is one more thing…

Interesting times and not surprising that APPLE will be part of the DOW Index and currently annoucning the iwatch. This usually happens at Social Media Sentiment Cycle tops. The following charts should speak for themselv. The dominant cycle is not as prominant as it was in the Silver situation, but a one that is worth to follow. (Data as of March 10 2015)

I. Isolating the dominant social media sentiment cycle

Apple Dominant Cycle - Social Media Sentiment

Apple Dominant Cycle – Social Media Sentiment

 

II. Mapping the social media sentiment cycle to price chart

AAPL price chart with dominant sentiment cycle

AAPL price chart with dominant sentiment cycle

 

III. Performance statistics of the (static) cycle

AAPL sentiment cycle performance

AAPL sentiment cycle performance

Follow the forecast on the AAPL realtime chart. (Signal was published 10. March 2015 before US market opening at a closing price of 127 (09.March))


The takeaway of this cycle analysis should be self-explanatory.

Thanks to PsychSignal for providing the sentiment data.

Here is the .pdf with charts: One_more_thing

LinkedIn Pulse: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/apple-dominant-social-media-sentiment-cycles-lars-von-thienen