For every parabolic movement of BTC price, a dominant cycle with a nominal length of 200 days was identified in advance
In June 2021, I did a Bitcoin cycle analysis research for past BTC/USD price extremens which concludes with an unexpected finding:
For every parabolic movement of BTC price, a dominant cycle with a nominal length of 200 days was identified in advance.
The cycle research article has analyzed the following parabolic moves in Bitcoin:
- The first parabolic move took place in June 2011, with a rise from 0.2 to 28 USD.
- The second extreme rise occurred in April 2013, from 2.20 to 230 USD.
- The third parabolic move took place in November 2013, from 10 to 1,200 USD.
- The fourth parabolic move took place in Dec. 2017, from 200 to 29,000 USD.
- The fifth move took finally place today, May 2021, from 10,000 to 60,000 USD.
In each scenario, the cycle was visible in the spectrum plot months before the actual extreme surge. The actual variance of this nominal 200-day cycle was 231, 221, 180, and 193 days, respectively, which was within an acceptable range.
Even the latest move in 2021 was seen in advance by this historical cycle. The light blue BTC price on the chart is out-of-sample data which was not known by the analysis algorithm. Only the dark blue data was used to detect the shown cycle. The detected and plotted cycle with a length of 193 days predicted the 2021 high in May. This nominal 200-day cycle was visisble in every past parabolic move. Therefore, it is interesting to pay attention to keep an eye on possible future Bitcoin movements.
The following chart is an extract from the full research article and shows the analysis prior to the 2021 move from 11k to 60k with the nominal 200-day cycle detected in advance and plotted as overlay on the price chart. (light blue not known, forecast area)
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